top of page

Giglio Outperforming Generic Republicans in CA-13, Only Chance for GOP to Defeat Democratic Rivals

Updated: Mar 12, 2022


[MADERA] — New polling reveals David Giglio is outperforming a Generic Republican in California’s 13th Congressional District and is the only candidate providing the party with a viable option to defeat both potential Democratic nominees for the U.S. House.

David Giglio for Congress has been conducting internal polling in the Central Valley since the recall, and in the newly adopted 13th District since its inception. While the Generic Ballot has been closer than many would’ve expected, it tipped slightly in favor of Republicans in March, 42.4% to 39.9%.

Yet, both Democratic candidates Adam Gray and Phil Arballo continue to hold significant and substantial leads over other potential and declared Republican candidates, save only for David Giglio.

When initially undecided voters lean, David Giglio has now pulled slightly ahead of Adam Gray, 44.4% to 43.7%. He leads Phil Arballo by a modestly larger margin, 44.9% to 41.8%, though both races are within the sampling error and remain highly competitive. (Crosstabs)

“Our campaign has been meeting and greeting voters all over the Valley for a year, and the polling shows clearly that our hard work has paid dividends,” Mr. Giglio said in response to the results. “However, I will continue to campaign as I have over the course of that year, as if we’re down double-digits.”

“I care too much for the people I’ve met and vow to keep the promises I have made when I’m elected to serve them in Congress.”

The polling included head-to-head matchups against three other potential and declared Republican candidates, including Diego Martinez and Elizabeth Heng. While fieldwork was conducted prior to the filing by John Duarte—a GOP donor who has participated in fundraisers for Democrat Adam Gray—the pollster who conducted the research doesn’t suspect results would’ve been much better for him.

“David Giglio is the Republican Party’s only chance to carry California’s 13th Congressional District,” Rich Baris, the Director of Big Data Poll stated. “I can say that confidently not only because I’ve been talking to the voters of the Valley for over a year, but also because of whom David draws his support from, and why.”

“He holds a massive 46.7% to 22.5% lead among independent and third-party voters, and even draws support from marginalized Democrats,” Baris added. “When asked, these voters tell us they view him as an outsider and everyday guy.”

“There’s an anti-elitism sentiment brewing beneath the surface, and no other Republican candidate—declared or otherwise—has David Giglio’s appeal.”

Adam Gray and Phil Arballo are both polling near, at or above 50% against other Republican candidates. Statistically, the results indicate these candidates are highly unlikely to significantly close the gap, let alone win in November.

Earlier this week, polling conducted for Adam Gray also found David Giglio leading the primary vote. Internal polling for the Giglio campaign found nearly identical results for the upcoming primary.

“The voters of the Valley to include Hispanics, independents and disaffected Democrats are sick of being neglected by game-playing politicians year-after-year,” Mr. Giglio further stated. “If Republicans unite behind my campaign, we can and will win this race and add to our new majority.”

“It’s unfortunate to see many ‘Republican’ leaders and seat-chasers determined to put their own interests first. Voters want and deserve someone from the Valley they can count on to keep their promises and fight for them against this cost of living crisis in Congress.”

ABOUT DAVID GIGLIO: David is a political outsider, former public-school teacher, and a small business owner in Madera. He is running as a Republican in California’s 13th Congressional District.

ABOUT THE SURVEY: Results were weighted to represent statewide voter file demographics to include gender, age, race and region. The partisan breakdown of the survey was 40.2% Democratic, 32.4% Republican, 22.6% Independent and 4.8% Other. It’s important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. (FULL CROSSTABS)


Visit to learn more about how you can get involved in the Fight for the Valley!

Visit to learn more about David and his plans to Fight for the Valley!

Visit to learn more about David’s bold yet unifying plan to finally address the water crisis in the Valley.


Download PDF • 671KB

bottom of page